UAE households are expected to shop earlier, celebrate more at home and spend more selectively during Ramadan 2027, according to a new analysis of consumer behaviour by Worldpanel by Numerator.
The forecast draws on how shoppers behaved during Ramadan 2026, when regional conflict pushed more family meals and hospitality into the home, while online grocery shopping gained ground.
Worldpanel says Ramadan 2027 will fall even closer to the winter months and that regional volatility appears set to continue, making early planning more important for brands and retailers.
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According to the UAE’s Astronomy Centre, the holy month of Ramadan is expected to begin on February 8, 2027, in the UAE.
Eid Al Fitr is celebrated during the first three days of the Hijri month of Shawwal. The likely dates of Eid Al Fitr in 2027 will depend on how long Ramadan lasts. The UAE is expected to sight the Shawwal crescent either on Monday, March 8, 2027, or Tuesday, March 9, 2027.
If the Shawwal crescent is sighted on the evening of Ramadan 29 (March 8), Eid Al Fitr will begin on Tuesday, March 9. If the crescent is not sighted and Ramadan lasts 30 days, Eid Al Fitr will begin on Wednesday, March 10, in the UAE.
Online basket set to lock earlier
The Numerator report advises brands to treat e-commerce as the “pre-season shelf” in the UAE, arguing that shoppers’ baskets are locked online before they reach a store.
E-commerce accounted for 8.7 per cent of FMCG volume during the Ramadan 2026 quarter, with growth in both shopper penetration and purchase frequency. Baskets were smaller, with shoppers making more trips and purchasing fewer items per order.
Modern trade still dominated, accounting for a 71.5 per cent share of volume.
FMCG spending in the UAE rose 5.3 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, with volumes increasing 3.5 per cent. Dairy led the growth, with spending up 7.5 per cent and volumes rising 5.2 per cent, followed by Home Care, which recorded a 7.2 per cent increase in spending and a 4.8 per cent rise in volume.
Growth was concentrated in fewer categories. During the quarter, 53 per cent of FMCG categories recorded volume growth, compared with 64 per cent over the 12 months to March 2026. Personal Care spending fell 2.8 per cent, while Beverage volumes slipped 1.1 per cent.
Worldpanel attributes the shift towards at-home occasions to regional conflict, which changed some social and out-of-home behaviours, as well as to hybrid and remote working patterns.
“Consumers are becoming more intentional, planning ahead and protecting the occasions that matter most to them,” said Idriss El Ganari, managing director for Africa and the Middle East at Worldpanel by Numerator.
Priorities across the region
The report also covers Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Morocco, saying that no single regional strategy will work in 2027.
In Saudi Arabia, households stocked up early, with February FMCG spending reaching an index of 117 against a typical month.
In Egypt, spending rose 30 per cent and volumes increased 20 per cent compared with non-Ramadan periods, driven by existing shoppers buying more.
In Morocco, the usual pre-Ramadan stock-up did not take place, and the number of packs bought per shopper fell 5 per cent.
Worldpanel says Ramadan has become a consumer journey that begins weeks before the first fast and continues through Eid.
Source: Khaleej Times